A 525bp increase in rates in a little over year was bound to present consequences and challenges. This article serves as a primer surrounding these implications but also explores how today’s situation can tighten credit availability, negatively impact bank efficiency ratios and hinder deposit gathering, ultimately shaping the lending landscape.
The Consequences of Rapidly Rising Interest Rates
1. Tightening Credit Conditions
When interest rates rise rapidly, the cost of borrowing increases. For banks, this means the cost of obtaining funds, whether through interbank loans or other financial instruments, becomes more expensive. Consequently, to maintain their profitability, banks may tighten their lending criteria, making it harder for potential borrowers to qualify for loans. This tightening can manifest in higher interest rates on loans, stricter lending requirements or a combination of both.
2. Impact on Efficiency Ratios
A bank’s efficiency ratio, which measures its overhead as a proportion of its revenue, can be adversely affected by rising interest rates. As the cost of funds increases, unless the bank can pass these costs onto customers through higher rates on loans — which may not always be feasible due to competitive pressures — its expenses as a proportion of income may increase. This deterioration in the efficiency ratio signifies less operational efficiency, potentially leading to reduced profitability if the bank cannot manage its operational costs effectively.
3. Challenges in Deposit Gathering
Deposits are a primary source of funds for banks, used significantly to extend credit. When interest rates rise rapidly, the competition for deposits intensifies. Banks need to offer higher interest rates to attract deposits, increasing their costs of funds. However, during periods of rapidly increasing rates, there is often a lag before banks can adjust the rates offered on deposits. This delay can result in slower deposit growth or even a reduction in deposit inflows, limiting the amount of money banks have available to lend.
The Interconnected Impact on Lending
These three factors — tighter credit conditions, worsening efficiency ratios and challenges in deposit gathering — are interconnected and collectively influence a bank’s lending capabilities.
- Tighter Credit and Slower Economic Growth: As lending standards tighten and credit becomes less available, businesses and consumers may cut back on spending, leading to slower economic growth. This slowdown can further depress deposit growth as individuals and businesses generate and save less money, exacerbating the challenges banks face.
- Risk Aversion: With efficiency ratios worsening, banks may become more risk-averse, opting to lend only to the most creditworthy borrowers to ensure that they do not exacerbate their financial strain by taking on bad debt. This risk aversion can further tighten the credit available to small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals who may not meet the heightened criteria.
- Regulatory and Capital Constraints: Banks are subject to regulatory requirements that dictate the minimum amount of capital they must hold relative to their risk-weighted assets. As efficiency ratios worsen and the cost of gathering deposits increases, maintaining regulatory capital ratios can become more challenging, potentially forcing banks to limit their lending activities to remain compliant.
Navigating the High-Interest Environment
Banks and other lending institutions must navigate these complex dynamics carefully. Strategies may include enhancing technological efficiencies, improving customer relationship management to retain and grow deposits and diversifying funding sources to reduce reliance on expensive interbank loans. Moreover, banks must balance the need to attract deposits with the necessity of maintaining healthy margins on lending.
Conclusion
Rapidly rising interest rates can create a ripple effect that tightens credit availability, impacts operational efficiencies, and complicates deposit-gathering efforts. Understanding these interconnected factors is crucial for companies. Seeking flexible capital providers outside the bank group may be a necessity to keep growth plans on pace for 2024 and beyond.
