Unique Capabiliites & Exclusive Research
Mid-Year 2026
Oil & Gas Report: The Three-Week Window
On July 7, the most rigorous price forecast in energy cut its 2026 Brent projection by 14 percent. Within three weeks, events had overtaken it. Crude traveled a range of more than $45 in four months — above $110 in March, the $60s in early July, back near $90 by month end. Our mid-year revision to the 2026 Basin Economics report examines what actually separated the operators who captured those windows from the ones who watched them close.
−14% Single-Month Cut to the 2026 Brent Forecast
$45+ Crude’s Round Trip in Four Months
587 U.S. Rotary Rigs — Activity Built Through the Volatility
0.49% Industry Loss Rate — Credit Was Never the Constraint
The July forecast was completed on July 1 and published six days later. Its reasoning was explicit and, on the information available, entirely sound: the June 18 memorandum of understanding had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and shut-in production was expected to return. Within three weeks the memorandum had collapsed, strikes had resumed, and Brent was back above $100. We are not criticizing the analysis. It was the best available, and it was invalidated by events — which is the entire point.
If the most sophisticated forecasting apparatus in the industry produced a number with a three-week shelf life, no operator’s capital plan should require a price view to hold long enough to finance against it. And the operators who did well in the first half were not the ones who called the March top or the July bottom. Neither of them forecast anything. One had a shorter cycle time.
That reframes what actually constrains execution.
SIX TREND BULLETS
- Execution Speed Displaces Price Accuracy as the Binding Constraint
- Borrowing Base Redetermination Guarantees Capital at the Wrong Moment
- Gathering and Produced Water Remain the Most Underfinanced Categories
- Gas Fundamentals Decouple From Persian Gulf Headlines
- Contracted Power Demand Changes the Underwriting Question
- Windows Narrow to Weeks as Volatility Persists Into the Second Half
Because borrowing bases redetermine against price decks, an operator funding equipment from the revolver is structurally guaranteed the least availability at the moment opportunity is greatest — and the most when the case for spending it is weakest.
Download the Complete Mid-Year 2026 Oil & Gas Report
Our comprehensive mid-year analysis includes completion timing economics, artificial lift and production optimization investment trends, why multi-lease gathering and produced water assets fall outside conventional underwriting, structure-matching across a production equipment portfolio, the case for funding equipment outside the borrowing base, and strategic implications for operators and energy-focused private equity sponsors.
Explore the Implications
Dive deeper into specific findings from our oil and gas capex research with our thought leadership series:
Traditional lenders left after the last price correction and have not come back in any meaningful way. The ones who remained size availability off a borrowing base that redetermines against a price deck — which means their capacity contracts exactly when an operator needs it most. First National Capital exists to close that gap.
Our energy finance team brings technical understanding of production assets and rapid execution to middle-market transactions. We specialize in:
- Funding production equipment, artificial lift, compression, and infrastructure outside the borrowing base — no price-deck redetermination.
- Delivering decisions in weeks, not months, because we evaluate oilfield assets internally rather than outsourcing the analysis.
- Underwriting multi-lease gathering systems and produced water infrastructure that fall outside conventional collateral templates.
- Structuring payments that flex with production activity rather than sitting fixed through price troughs.
- Complementing existing bank relationships rather than competing with them — most lenders welcome exposure moving off their facility.
With over $4.5 billion deployed across North America, First National Capital has the expertise, capacity, and execution speed to serve as a genuine strategic partner—not merely a transactional vendor.
Flexible Terms
- Transaction sizes from $500M to $100MM+
- Terms from 24 to 180 months depending on assets financed
- Amortizations up to 20+ years
- No Covenants
- Flexible collateral requirements
- Risk-based pricing yielding competitive rates for strong and challenged-credit
Finance Structures
- Sale Leaseback
- Loans & Capital Leases
- Project Finance
- Seasonal, Step-Up & Skip Payments
It All Begins With A Conversation About Capital Needs
We listen. We live out-of-the-box. We solve problems. And we get deals done. Let’s do this.