NEWS & INSIGHTS

The CapEx Nobody Budgets
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Ask a middle-market CFO how the company finances equipment and the answer is clear. Ask how it finances a new product line, an ERP replacement, a compute and network overhaul, or a conversion from diesel to electric process heat, and the answer gets vaguer. In most cases the honest answer is: out of operating cash, by default, because nobody framed it as a financing decision.

That default is becoming expensive. The categories of capital that do not look like equipment are growing faster than the ones that do, and in a rising-rate, energy-shocked environment they are exactly where the cash-outlay reflex does the most damage.

Three Categories Hiding in Plain Sight

The first is the product line build-out. Launching or relocating a line is rarely a single purchase. It is primary equipment plus tooling, fixtures, material handling, controls, vision and inspection, integration labor, validation, and ramp. On many build-outs, the soft costs of engineering, installation, programming, and commissioning represent 30% to 50% of total project cost. Because the project is budgeted as a program rather than a list of assets, it tends to be funded as one: from cash, in stages, as invoices arrive.

The second is digital infrastructure. ERP and MES implementations, on-premises and edge compute, AI inference hardware, network and cybersecurity upgrades, and plant-floor connectivity have moved from IT line items to core production infrastructure. A mid-sized manufacturer can easily commit $2 million to $10 million across these categories over a few years. Much of the value sits in software licenses, implementation services, and integration, which conventional lenders treat as soft collateral and often decline to finance at all.

The third, and the most underestimated, is the energy retool. With diesel at $6 a gallon and energy costs elevated by the conflict with Iran, energy has moved from a utility line to a strategic operating risk. Backup and prime power generation, fleet and process electrification, solar and battery storage, microgrids, heat recovery, and compressed air and HVAC efficiency upgrades: projects that penciled out marginally two years ago now carry paybacks measured in a few years. They are also capital-intensive, technically specialized, and frequently deployed in phases.

The numbers behind each category
30% to 50%
Product line build-outs
Share of total project cost in engineering, installation, programming, and commissioning.
$2M to $10M
Digital infrastructure
Typical multi-year commitment across ERP, compute, network, and security for a mid-sized manufacturer.
$6 diesel
Energy retool
Generation, storage, electrification, and efficiency paybacks now measured in a few years.

Why These Default to Cash

These categories share four characteristics that push them toward cash outlay. They are budgeted as projects rather than assets, so they bypass the equipment financing process entirely. They are deployed over time, so there is no finished, collateralizable asset on day one. They carry a heavy share of soft costs, which generalist lenders will not underwrite. And they are integrated systems whose value lies in how components work together rather than in any single piece a bank can appraise.

Why these projects default to cash
Budgeted as projects
They bypass the equipment financing process entirely.
Deployed over time
There is no finished, collateralizable asset on day one.
Heavy in soft costs
Generalist lenders will not underwrite them.
Integrated systems
Value sits in how components work together, not in any piece a bank can appraise.

The outcome is predictable. Our research indicates that close to half of planned digital infrastructure spend at middle-market companies is expected to be funded from operating cash, with the share for energy projects nearly as high. Those are among the highest-return investments on the capital plan, and they are being funded with the most expensive capital the company has.

The projects most likely to be funded from cash are often the ones with the strongest returns. That is precisely backwards.

The Forward-Deployment Problem

The core challenge is timing. A product line or energy system requires capital months before it produces anything, and before it exists in a form a traditional lender recognizes as collateral. Banks typically respond by financing sequentially: fund the equipment when it is delivered, handle soft costs separately or not at all, revisit the balance after commissioning. Each step adds approval time, and each introduces the risk that capital is unavailable mid-program.

The better approach funds the project as the integrated system it is. Progress or interim funding covers deposits, milestone payments, and installation during the build, then converts to a term structure at completion. Soft costs are underwritten as part of the whole, because a lender that understands the system knows an uninstalled press, an unprogrammed cell, or an unconnected battery array is worth a fraction of the commissioned whole. Payments can be deferred or stepped to align with the ramp, so the project begins to pay for itself before it begins to cost in earnest.

Two ways to fund a build
Build and install
Commission
Ramp
Sequential
Deposits from cash
Approval
Equipment funded on delivery
Soft costs from cash
Full payments begin
Integrated
Progress funding covers deposits, milestones, and installation
Converts to term
Stepped payments follow the ramp
Illustrative sequence. Soft costs are underwritten as part of the whole system in the integrated approach.

The Energy Retool Deserves Its Own Line

Energy projects deserve particular attention because their economics are shifting fastest. When a process runs on diesel, propane, or grid power at volatile prices, a retrofit is not only a cost-reduction project. It is a hedge. Its value rises precisely when energy prices spike, which is exactly when the rest of the business is under pressure.

That profile lends itself to structures in which payments are sized against expected savings, so the project is cash-flow positive or close to it from commissioning. It also argues for treating energy infrastructure as a program rather than a single project: an efficiency phase, then a generation or storage phase, then an electrification phase, each financed as the results of the last justify it. Companies that pay cash for phase one often find they lack the liquidity for phase two at the moment the case for it is strongest.

An energy program, financed in phases
1
Efficiency
Compressed air, HVAC, heat recovery. Fastest payback, proves the savings.
2
Generation or storage
Backup and prime power, solar, batteries. Sized on phase one results.
3
Electrification
Fleet and process heat. Funded when the case is strongest.
Each phase is financed as the results of the last justify it, with payments sized against expected savings.

Budget It Like a Portfolio

The discipline is to bring these categories into the capital plan on equal footing with conventional equipment. Map product line, digital, and energy commitments over a three-year horizon alongside the equipment base. Identify which elements are financeable and on what structures. Engage capital partners early, before vendor commitments lock in timing, so funding is designed around the project rather than improvised around invoices.

The companies that do this will fund their most important transformation projects with their cheapest appropriate capital and keep their cash for the things only cash can do. The ones that do not will discover, somewhere in the middle of a build, that the project was never really in the capital plan at all.

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The CapEx Nobody Budgets